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The Fall of Uncertainty

September 13, 2023

Photo credit goes to Vagueonthehow

We should call this the Fall of Uncertainty.  We are uncertain as to falling or rising inflation; uncertain as to higher interest rates, one of the largest factors in valuing real estate; uncertain as to true new values of real estate; uncertain as to whether we are now in a recession, or will be going into a recession or whether there will be no recession; uncertain as to when we will enter the Next Normal phase, or whether Uncertainty itself is the next New Normal.  Aarrgghh.

 

让我们绕着圣安东尼奥转一圈,看看我们的宇宙现在怎么样了. The Value numbers below are for the national market, not San Antonio, and come from Green Street Advisors, the top commercial real estate analysts.

 

Office:  Values down 31%

我们的市场最不确定的部分是写字楼,尤其是市中心.  Mayor Castro’s Decade of Downtown, 同时成功地刺激了中心城市住宅和办公楼的巨大增长, ended with a thud in 2020, its final tenth year with the Covid lockdowns.

 

Now, 圣安东尼奥和奥斯汀是快速增长的市场,我们美丽的城市通常被认为是最具弹性的市场之一.  However, Rackspace left a 1.他们离开前总部大楼时挖了一个300万平方英尺的洞, formerly known as Windsor Park Mall, in Windcrest.

 

USAA, 该公司收购了河滨步道一号(one Riverwalk)和美国银行广场(Bank of America Plaza),成为进入市中心的最大就业企业之一, 所有员工都搬回了IH-10的主校区.  Code-Up left, too.  出租入住率目前低于80%,实际入住率低于50%, 因为周二-周三-周四的混合工作周已经从简单的在家工作中占据了一席之地.  This trend is national, but we are in no way exempt.

 

唯一的亮点是珍珠区,那里有牛堡办公楼, 杰弗逊银行大楼和美国银行大楼都表现良好.  Add in the Soto, 6-story 168,000平方英尺的办公大楼在前卡文德凯迪拉克的位置, just south on Broadway, 这总结了埃尔森特罗的工作.

 

Multifamily: Values down 20%

Construction is doing well, not slowing much.  We are on track to deliver 6,000 new units this year, an additional 6,000 next year and 6,000 in 2025.  It takes about 3 years from identifying a new site, to when the project is in lease-up, 因此,我们可以看到新的交付管道在未来几年出现.   入住率从93%下降到88%,租金也有所下降.  对住房的长期需求是好的,但现在,不是很好.

 

Residential is still doing well downtown. 韦斯顿城市正在推进其300个主要的354个单元的32层AA级高层住宅结构, 尽管它的弗罗斯特银行广场还没有完全租赁.  韦斯顿还在规划大陆街区(Continental Block)的综合开发项目,拥有300多个单元. 现在考虑一下Tower Life大楼从办公到住宅的再开发.  在“闹市区十年”(Decade of Downtown)期间建造的大约1万套公寓单元中,还增加了这些房屋.  我不理解在工作岗位似乎都在流失的情况下搬到市中心的动力, so I am uncertain of the strength of this trend.  We should keep an eye on it, though.

 

Retail: Values down 9%

Retail is actually very strong city-wide.  Housing supply spawns the need for more retail, 但更高的成本严重限制了新建筑.  Higher costs include 1. construction materials 2. land costs. 3. extremely higher property taxes 4. 4 .灾害和气候变化引起的保险费用上升. 为租户完成内部空间的成本要高得多,等等.  圣安东尼奥的房租已经很高了,所以当地的租户很难负担得起房租.

 

Industrial: Values down 8%

圣安东尼奥的房地产行业表现非常好,在建面积约为800万平方英尺,入住率在95%以上.  Big box industrial, that is, 50,000 square feet to 500,000 square feet is usually built spec, that is, without tenants in tow.  They just get leased up because demand is high, 但这需要非常大的资本配置来实现(阅读“大量的病人的钱”)。.

 

Investment Sales

在过去的一年里,由于我上面提到的全国市场价值的下降,投资销售交易量大幅下降. 例如,公寓销售数量下降了50%.  每一处房产可能每3年或最多10年才出售一次,现在的速度要慢得多.

 

当债务成本高企,盈利能力受到压力时,卖家不愿将房产投放市场, so discovering the real true value is difficult.  Green Street Advisors, whom I referenced above, 假设全国所有房地产行业的平均价格比2022年的峰值下降了15%.  这主要是由于利率的上升.

 

考虑到贷方通过房产贷款将约60%至75%的购买价格投资于房产, 所以利息支出是一项主要的非经营性支出.  由于利率可能在某个时候走高,这将继续给价格带来下行压力.  Then, 不确定的是,更高的利率将把我们推入衰退, 损害了租户的盈利能力和支付高租金的能力.

 

因此,除非被迫,否则业主不愿成为卖家. 当业主必须再融资时,危机就来了,因此他们必须得到评估, which may show their property value has declined. Then as a result, the lender won’t finance as much, maybe not even as much as the current loan amount. 再加上更高的利息支出,所以业主必须从口袋里拿出新的钱来投入他的交易, 但是他和他的投资者没有新的资金投入到交易中,所以结果是, well, “uncertain,” shall we say.

 

Approximately, $1.2万亿美元的不良债务必须在未来18个月内重新融资.  Wall Street firms, never missing a perceived opportunity, 正在为机会基金(Opportunity Funds)筹集数十亿美元,以扑向问题房产.

 

But this too will pass.  We live in a great area of the country with smart, 辛勤工作的人们非常关心我们的社区.  Our next patch of good road is just ahead of us.

 

Please send comments to raub@bjjkfysmyxgs.com